# Summary of Superforecasting  ## Metadata - Author: [[Instaread Summaries]] - Full Title: Summary of Superforecasting - Category: #books ## Highlights - Unlike many of the natural sciences, medicine did not truly enter a period of rigorous scientific measurement until very recently. In his book The Youngest Science: Notes of a Medicine-Watcher (1983), physician Lewis Thomas describes this shift. ([Location 95](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B08HKKPZQ2&location=95)) - A 2014 article in GQ (UK) illustrates how difficult it is for most people to think probabilistically. The author, Richard Fisher, gives the example of the Monty Hall problem, named after the 1970s host of the game show Let’s Make a Deal. On that show, participants are given a choice of three doors, behind one of which is a prize. The participant selects one door. The host then opens a second door, which he knows to be empty. Now the participant is asked if they want to switch doors. Most people say it doesn’t matter, and that there is a 50-50 chance the contestant’s choice will yield a prize. But this isn’t true: if the participant switches, they win two out of three times. This is because the host knew he was revealing nothing behind the second door. So while the odds for the door the participant chose do not change, the odds of the open door become zero, and the odds of the third door become two-thirds. Those who can determine the higher odds of the third door are likely to have more skilled System 2 processing. [7] ([Location 175](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B08HKKPZQ2&location=175))